The main threat from this system will be heavy rain, and NOAA was predicting 2 – 4” of rain for most of South Florida over the week.įigure 3. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odds of tropical cyclone development of 20% and 40%, respectively. Wind shear over the system will mostly be moderate through Sunday, then likely rise to the high range by Tuesday, squelching any further development. A strong ridge of high pressure will build to the north of the low by Sunday, forcing it to move westward. None of these solutions had the system reaching hurricane strength, though. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Saturday afternoon, if necessary.Ībout 40% of the 70 members of the 0Z Thursday GFS and European model ensemble forecasts predicted development of a tropical depression in the waters surrounding Florida by early next week. A small non-tropical surface low pressure system is expected to form by Saturday in the waters a few hundred miles off the east coast of Florida-or less likely, just off the west coast of Florida-and this low will have the potential to become a tropical depression over the weekend. This disturbance will move northwards through Saturday, when it will interact with a cold front pushing south across the Florida Peninsula. Watching the waters near Florida this weekend for new developmentĪn area of disturbed weather extending from the northwest Caribbean across central Cuba and into the Bahamas on Thursday morning was associated with a broad trough of surface low pressure interacting with an upper-level low. GOES-16 imagery is considered preliminary and non-operational. GOES-16 view of an area of disturbed weather centered in the northwest Caribbean, just south of Cuba, at 10:15 am EDT Thursday, September 28, 2017.

Moisture from both systems will head toward the British Isles, where very wet, windy conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday.įigure 2. The same upper-level trough hauling Maria eastward will be doing the same with Lee’s remnants. NHC predicts that Lee will be a tropical storm by Friday and a dissipating low this weekend. As it arcs toward the northeast at an accelerating pace, Lee’s small size will allow it to weaken fairly quickly. High wind shear (20 – 30 knots) is already taking its toll on Lee, which was losing its well-defined eye and developing a more asymmetric structure on Thursday morning. Located about 460 miles east-northeast of Bermuda as of 11 am EDT, Lee was moving north at 10 mph, a track taking it over progressively cooler waters. After peaking as a Category 3 hurricane, Lee’s top winds were down to 100 mph at 11 am EDT Thursday. In a month that already boasts more hurricane days than any other in Atlantic history, Hurricane Lee is still adding to that total. Lee is still a hurricane, but not for long Cirrus outflow from Tropical Storm Maria can be seen at far left. Infrared image of Hurricane Lee at 11:45 am EDT Thursday, September 28, 2017. Maria will be pushed east-northeast at an accelerating pace by a strong upper-level trough moving toward the North Atlantic (the same trough that’s now sweeping a historic record-warm air mass away from the Great Lakes).įigure 1. By late Friday, Maria will be moving over cooler water and experiencing higher wind shear, and this will hasten its expected conversion into a post-tropical low over the weekend. The storm has a large circulation, and it will be traveling over marginally warm waters (sea surface temperatures of 26-27☌ or 79-81☏) in wind shear of less than 10 knots. Maria is not expected to regain hurricane strength, but its decline will be gradual over the next day or so. According to the NOAA Tides and Currents Quicklook page for Maria, a peak storm surge of 2.8’ was observed at Cape Hatteras, NC near 2 am EDT Wednesday. Minor flooding was reported on side streets as well as on Highway 12, the main route linking the region’s islands.

As Maria made its closest approach to the Outer Banks, winds gusted to as high as 55 mph at Oregon Inlet. East Coast, and evacuation orders for tourists on Hatteras and Ocracoke islands were being lifted on Thursday. All tropical storm and storm surge watches and warnings have been discontinued for the U.S. With top sustained winds of 70 mph at 11 am EDT Thursday, Maria was located about 365 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, heading east at 13 mph. Still close to hurricane strength on Thursday, Tropical Storm Maria was taking the first eastward turn in its 12 days as a named system, signaling a long-awaited recurvature that will take it away from land. Above: GOES-16 satellite image of Tropical Storm Maria (left) and Hurricane Lee (right) at 12:05 pm EDT Thursday, September 28, 2017.

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